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カープが優勝する理由

想定通りの現象が起きている。

カープはGWの戦いを終えて借金2、2位ヤクルトと3ゲーム差の3位につけている。
しかし、この好成績にも関わらず、巷では「得点が少ない。決定打が出ない」「選手に元気がない」「ブラウン監督の采配が悪い」「やっぱりカープは今年もダメだ」といった声があがっているのだ。

実に喜ばしい現象である。

好結果にも関わらず、これこれの場面でこれこれの打者が打っていればもっと勝てたはずだ、打てないやつは二軍に行け、などと評してしまう。これは強いチームのファンに共通する特徴である。今までのカープファンであれば選手層の薄いチームであると理解していたため、選手を簡単に外せなどと言えなかったに違いない。勝率5割近いという結果で満足してしまっていたであろう。今年のカープは選手層が厚くなっておりもっと上に行けるはず、とファンが無意識に感じているからこそ、このような声があがるのだと思われる。

また、もっとこうこうなっていれば更に勝ち星を重ねられたはずでありそうなるよう采配できなかった監督は無能だ、という声も多い。これも強いチームのファンに共通する特徴である(弱いチームのファンにもよく見られる特徴だ)。異なる選択肢を選んでいれば必ず好結果が出ていたのだ、と確信していなければ、そのような声はあげられない。カープの強さを理解しているからこその言葉であろう。どの選択肢であってもバッドエンド確定だった過去のカープとは違うのである。

今年、カープは優勝する。
それは、私が毎年カープ優勝を確信していることからも明らかだ。
秋が楽しみである。

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